Fernando H. Green Blog: W|A|M Rankings: The OPEN Championship

By: Joe Monk

Here at MyGolfSpy we've long looked for ways to expand beyond equipment and cover the PGA Tour on a regular basis, but only on our terms. That means you won't see a Tiger Woods article anytime he comes within 20 feet of a golf club. You probably won't see a weekly what's in the bag post either. And you'll definitely NEVER get our rundown of the hottest women in golf.

That's not what we do. None of it fits with our #DATACRATIC model.

But what if the same statistically-driven methodologies that help us identify the best performing golf clubs each season could be applied to the PGA Tour?

We wanted to develop an algorithm that, after all the numbers are crunched, could identify the future champion of any given PGA tournament. No hunches, no personal affinities for Jordan, Rickie, or Rory, just 100% data-driven answers.

We believe we've done just that.

The system we've developed internally has successfully identified the winner of the past 3 Major Championships. Statistically, the odds of that happening are less than 1%. Pulling off 4 in a row... the number is .16%, so we're saying there's a chance.

Confident in our past - though admittedly private - success, we're ready to share what the data is telling us with you.

About Our Analytics

Without giving away the farm, here's a breakdown of what our algorithm considers:

Stats Ranking - First we consider the obvious stuff. We generate a rating based on Strokes Gained Putting, Driving Distance, Sand Save Percentage and several other PGA Tour statistics.
Current Forum and the host course - While the stats are important, trends show that a golfer is more likely to play well when he's in good form. We also consider whether or not the course suits a given players style and eye. This ranking is based on past performances from similar courses.
For example, Royal Lytham - the venue of the 2012 Open - is similar to Royal Troon because of the severity of bunkering and long, tough, stretch of holes in the middle of the back nine. A player that played well at Lytham has shown his ability to drive the ball well in the wind and tame tough holes under pressure.
Proprietary Analytics - The final part of algorithm is entirely proprietary. It's the secret that brings this all together, and sorry, we're not sharing.

The Top 5

This week at the Open Championship at Royal Troon there are 156 competitors in the field. We've plugged in the numbers for each and every one of them, and, based on our calculations, here are the golfers most likely to win the Claret Jug:

Adam Scott

Far and away the leader on the list. He's a past major champion and a player who bested the field for 68 holes at Royal Lytham and St. Annes in 2012 (most comparable course in the Open rotation to Troon). People forget his early season victories in windy Florida; did I mention his low ball flight?

Jason Day

The only high ball hitter to make our Top 5. Superb putting statistics and an innate ability to scramble, coupled with a high finish in the Ranking Stat, pushed Day up our board. His ability to handle the 10-20 mph winds with his ball flight is key if he wants to win a second major.

Matt Kuchar

A Top 10 finish at Lytham in 2012 and a Top 20 in last year’s Open only moved Kuchar up the list. Kuchar’s accurate iron play, positive putting trends, and above average sand save percentage already had him near the top of the Stats Ranking. He's all but guaranteed a Top 20 finish.

Branden Grace

Grace is 190th on tour in Apex Height (distance of ball from the ground at it’s highest point) which will be great in the wind. A former winner of the Alfred Dunhill Championship - a links style tournament held on Open venues sanctioned by the European Tour - Grace is built for the Open. He’s also surprisingly long and contended at Chambers Bay last June.

Henrik Stenson

The big hitting Swede is running out of time to claim the elusive first major. Stenson is fantastic across the board in the Stat Ranking with the lone exception of putting. If he can hole putts he will contend. His number 2 in Strokes Gained Approach makes him more likely to stay out of Troon’s cavernous bunkering. Even if he does find the bunkers though, Stenson sits at 30th on Tour in Sand Save Percentage.

Dark Horse Picks

Ross Fisher (11) - At 97 in the World Golf Rankings, Fisher isn’t a typical dark horse, but he does sit higher on our list than many would expect. Other than his putting stats and his 68th place finish at St. Andrews last July (still a made cut), Fisher sits significantly above the average in ten of the categories we consider.

Francesco Molinari (14) - He seems to play within himself and his style of play fits the tournament. Molinari is going to hit it well, but the putter is a question mark. He does have multiple high finishes on links style courses, so it’s likely Molinari holes more putts on the slower greens.

Luke Donald (31) - The former world number one - for 40 weeks in 2011 and 2012 - has slid to 85th in the World Rankings. In our rankings, however, Donald’s power numbers are really all that is holding him back. His 5th place finish at Lytham and his 12th place finish last July at St. Andrews suggest that Donald is poised to make a run at the Claret Jug.

Joost Louiten (37) - The Dane is relatively unknown to PGA Tour followers, but has been a prominent fixture on the European Tour for years. Louiten claims a spot in our Top 5 statistically, but poor play at St. Andrews last year, and a missed cut at the Scottish Open last week, make us hesitant to go all-in. If he is in form come Thursday at Troon, look for him to make a run.

Russell Henley (41) - Henley holds one of the of the top spots in the Stats Rankings, but lacks strong finishes in the past tournaments we considered. We like him because he beat Rory and Tiger at the Honda Classic a few years ago, so he’s shown he has guts. Flighting his ball in the wind will be key because he’s just above average in Apex Height and Strokes Gained on Approach.